Is there a driver shortage in the UK?

The Road Haulage Association (RHA) wrote to Boris Johnson in June warning about a 100k driver shortage. The 100k figure came from the Labour Force Survey, a copy of which can be found at the Office of National Statistics. Let's take a look.

The ONS provides a link to download an excel spreadsheet with 2 tabs. One is data from the APS (Annual Population Survey) and the other is data from the LFS (Labour Force Survey). Having a look at the LFS we see the following table:

As you can see in the table, the total number of drivers peaked in Oct-Dec 2016 at 334k. The latest figure in Apr-Jun 2021 sits at 236k which is a difference of 98k. Sure enough that is close to the 100k figure claimed by the RHA.

But there is a flaw in the data, a flaw that the ONS even highlights in the spreadsheet. Looking at the top of the LFS tab we see the following text:

“Warning: This analysis is produced using Labour Force Survey (LFS) data as a result of a user request and increased media interest. ONS does not recommend the use of LFS for this type of analysis due to small sample sizes and insufficient quality. We recommend that the APS data is used instead as the larger sample sizes of the APS result in more robust estimates for this type of analysis.”

The ONS is recommending we use the APS data, so let’s have a look:

Looking at the APS data, we can see that the total peaked in 'Apr 16 - Mar 17' at 321k, and the 2021 total sits at 275k, which creates a difference of 46k drivers.

So from looking at the data, we can see the estimated shortage is approximately half of the number stated by the RHA, who chose to use a figure that the ONS stated should not be used for this type of analysis due to a small sample size. There does appear to be a shortage, but the number is approximately 46k, 50% less than the number being reported in the headlines.

Surely Brexit is the cause of the shortage?

It’s easy to see Brexit as the cause: EU workers leaving the UK and returning home or seeking work elsewhere. However, the data doesn’t support Brexit as being the cause. Have another look at the APS table above.

The EU column tells an interesting story. The number of EU drivers increased every year until 2021. What event occurred through 2020-2021 that could have impacted that? Covid. It makes sense that, during a global pandemic, foreign workers would return home to be with family, or get stuck at closed borders trying to come into the UK.

The UK column tells a more impactful story. UK drivers peaked in 'Apr16 - Mar17' at 282k and currently sits at 244k with a difference of 38k. This means that UK drivers account for 82% of the 46k shortage.

To summarise: the number of EU drivers increased every year until Covid, meanwhile the number of UK drivers has been steadily dropping ever since 2018 and has dropped sharply as a result of covid. Brexit does not appear to be a major factor. Covid certainly is, but we are left asking why the number of UK drivers has been falling since 2018.

What role does Covid play?

As well as what has already been mentioned, covid has also had effects thanks to testing, as in drivers licence testing.

Last year, 40,000 HGV tests were cancelled due to Covid. This means that the pool of newly qualified drivers has been shrinking more so than it already was.

As well as cancelled tests, the DVLA sent their licencing staff home, again due to Covid. It turns out that drivers’ licences, and in this case HGV licences, can only be administered within the office itself, and so having the staff stuck at home meant that new licences were not being processed for months.

On top of all this, the DVLA has also been engaged in industrial action which has resulted in hundreds of thousands of people being unable to renew licences or apply for provisionals.

Any other factors?

Another major factor that nobody is talking about is the impact of IR35 on the industry. The introduction of IR35 has put many drivers in the position of needing to go onto payroll rather than being contractors. Lorry drivers are a certain kind of person. They like to be left alone to get on with the job, and many of them want to be their own boss. They can work when they want, rest when they want and ultimately answer to nobody.

IR35 threw a spanner in the works for contractors, leading many to leave the industry because if they couldn’t be their own boss then they might as well work for companies that offer good pay and benefits, as well as sociable working hours.

Working conditions

If we really want to know what drivers are thinking, we need to listen to the drivers themselves. Reverend Simon Sideways has an excellent video explaining what is causing the driver shortage.

In the video, he states that there are currently 70,000 HGV licence holders in the UK who could be driving right now, but they choose not to due to working conditions and pay. He also mentions how agencies skim off the top so a driver might earn £12.50 an hour, but the agency is pocketing fees from client companies that the driver doesn’t even know about.

There is a culture in the industry of cutting corners. Drivers are given a load plan saying the trailer is within weight, when in fact it may be several tonnes overweight. For every tonne a vehicle is overweight, a driver must pay £1k in fines. If drivers question their employers, they are fired because the agencies still view drivers as expendable and replaceable.

Drivers are treated appallingly. When they arrive at a depot they may be told to wait for several hours and are not allowed use of bathrooms. On top of that, their keys are often taken off them so they can’t leave to do anything else in the meantime, so they are stuck in their cab without toilets for hours. If you’ve ever been in a layby and smelt urine, that’s probably why.

What can be done to fix the shortage?

The government has announced a scheme to bring EU drivers in on temporary visas to help in the short term. This may alleviate the pressure somewhat, but it does not solve the problem at large.

Quite simply, the solution is to pay drivers more and improve conditions in the industry. Waitrose is reportedly offering £45,000 for drivers.

"The bottom line is that companies are doing whatever they can to obtain and keep hold of drivers."

"HGV drivers are a scarce resource in the UK and with a government devoid of workable ideas on how to ease the problem, the shortage is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.”

Waitrose said that 900 drivers already employed by the supermarket will benefit from the up to £5,000 pay increase.

Meanwhile, new drivers will get a £1,000 joining bonus as it tackles the staff shortages.

In a statement, Mark Robinson, Director of Supply Chain for the John Lewis Partnership, said: “There’s never been a better time to get behind the wheel for Waitrose and John Lewis."

It is a game of supply and demand. The driver supply is shrinking, and demand is growing. If you pay drivers more, they will come. With the reported figure of 70k licence holders who are not currently driving, the industry would be able to end the shortage tomorrow if they increased wages and improved conditions to bring those drivers back.

Cheap labour

Who benefits from continuing to push the “DRIVER CRISIS”? The companies that were benefiting from taking advantage of cheap foreign labour. The driver shortage started picking up steam back in 2018, and has been getting worse, quietly in the background, ever since. The government had many opportunities to put in provisions to ensure it never got this bad, and yet they sat on their hands and looked the other way.

Now we have industry CEO’s and political parties demanding that temporary EU visas be introduced to plug the gap. But it is those very CEO’s that would benefit from cheap foreign labour instead of having to pay a decent wage and improve working conditions for home grown drivers.

This isn’t even about dislike of foreign workers. Polish and Romanian drivers got sick of being taken advantage of by agencies as much as UK drivers did. They went home to their countries for better pay, while UK drivers moved to different industries.

Improve working conditions and pay drivers better and the shortage will be fixed. Stop allowing these exploitative businesses to get away with treating both ours and foreign drivers like sacks of meat.