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I call on any conservative government worthy of the name to reflect upon the way in which it currently favours total employment, at any cost, over and above the traditional family unit. I ask that if they are not willing to actively incentivise these traditional family units, then they at least remove some of the disincentives which currently exist as a result of our ‘progressive’ system.  

The Trad Tax

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<html><head></head><body><h1>A Beginners Guide to Libertarianism for Right-Wingers</h1>&nbsp;So, you want to know what paleolibertarianism is? Well seeing as I am this project’s resident right-wing anarchist, I guess it is up to me to explain it to all of those reading with a particular love for liberty &amp; individual freedom.&nbsp;Paleolibertarianism didn’t begin as an ideology in and of itself, but rather as a libertarian political activism strategy developed by the late anarcho-capitalist founding father Murray Rothbard and one of his peers, Mises Institute founder &amp; chairman Lew Rockwell. Murray and Lew in the late ’80s to early '90s realized that their message wasn’t reaching the masses and that they needed a new strategy to bring their ideology into the mainstream. Between them, the two anarcho-capitalists came up with the idea of building an alliance with an ideological group more mainstream than themselves with some overlapping policy positions so that they may mutually promote those ideas while bringing new eyes to their movement. They both thought it was a great idea and work began on finding such a movement.&nbsp;To take us even further back in time for a moment, Murray Rothbard did have some history of alliances. In the ’60s and ’70s, Murray tried to ally his anti-statist anarcho-capitalist movement with the anti-statist movements of the left, such as the anarcho-communists. However, over time it became clear to Murray that these movements were far more communist than anarchist and such alliances with the left fell apart, as such it was only natural that Rothbard and Rockwell would search elsewhere for their new alliances. Surprisingly enough, they found what they were looking for in the form of the traditionalist right, with the paleoconservative movement. The paleoconservatives believe in things like non-interventionist foreign policy, property rights and liberty, though perhaps not to such the extreme as libertarians in the latter case. This made them better than most as far as alliances go.&nbsp;In 1989 Murray Rothbard and paleoconservative Thomas Fleming set up the John Randolph Club, run by the conservative think-tank the Rockford Institute. This alliance was solidified through the mutual support of paleoconservative politician Pat Buchanan for President of the United States during the 1992 election cycle. The end goal of this alliance was the creation of an anti-war &amp; anti-welfare alternative to the neoconservative establishment leftover from the cold war era, under Ronald Reagan.&nbsp;Unfortunately, this alliance was not to last. Rothbard later accused Buchanan of favouring central planning and state power too much which led paleolibertarians to no longer support the man. The John Randolph Club would be disbanded in 1995 due to non-overlapping ideas between paleolibertarians and paleoconservatives leading to incompatibility between the two factions. After that, the “Paleo Movement” largely fell apart and whatever right-wing resistance there was to the neoconservative establishment fell away until the election of Donald Trump in 2016, whom some paleolibertarians did tacitly support despite some policy differences.However, this still hasn’t answered the question, what is paleolibertarianism?&nbsp;Well, between the fall of the “Paleo Movement” and the present day the former libertarian political strategy has since formed into an ideology. Taking elements from Rothbardian and Hoppean anarcho-capitalism and paleoconservatism to form a composite ideology that seeks a free society based on faith, natural law, and of course property rights. Paleolibertarianism isn’t necessarily inherently anarchist in nature, but most who subscribe to the ideology, me included, are also anarcho-capitalists in part due to all the major libertarian influences for the ideology themselves being so. This has led many paleolibertarians to have found paleolibertarianism through anarcho-capitalism.&nbsp;The paleo variant of libertarianism has been gaining traction in recent years due to beltway libertarianism (libertarianism as expressed by establishment insiders &amp; shills) having lost its appeal to a lot of former libertarian party voters, greater interest in libertarian literature among self-identifying libertarians, greater scepticism of progressivism and the Mises Caucus of the US Libertarian Party along with several online and media personalities adopting elements of the “Paleo Movement” in their libertarian activism.&nbsp;In an age where the political centre is losing popularity, libertarianism is seemingly being forced to pick a side on social and cultural matters and the right has naturally been libertarianism’s go-to since the left has categorically rejected libertarianism as being part of its umbrella. As such Paleolibertarianism is stepping up to the plate to show disaffected libertarians the way.Okay, so what positions do paleolibertarians hold then?Paleolibertarianism is an inherently right-wing ideology. Being culturally &amp; socially conservative, economically free-market and civically libertarian. Unlike base libertarianism, paleolibertarianism posits that there is an inherent incompatibility between cultural egalitarianism, progressivism &amp; multiculturalism and the idea of liberty and believes in the Hoppean idea that to maintain a libertarian social order, there can be no tolerance for democrats (proponents of democracy, not supporters of the American Democratic Party) and communists.&nbsp;As with all libertarians, paleolibertarians advocate for a free-market economy. Paleolibertarians oppose all forms of state intervention in the economy, believing individuals are best served in the economy when it has no outside influences at all. On top of that, paleolibertarians also oppose interventionism in foreign policy, believing that property owners should only aggress against those who have aggressed against them first and that defence should be left up to private property owners. Minarchist (small state) paleolibertarians may support the existence of a standing army but maintain the non-interventionist stance.&nbsp;On social issues, paleolibertarians tend to believe in maintaining social order using natural law, religious faith, and the moral framework derived from those metaphysical belief systems. We believe it is needed that for a libertarian social order to be maintained, those in the community must protect its core social values from outsiders, lest the social fabric will break down and take liberty with it. Paleolibertarians also tend to be very anti-globalist, though not necessarily nationalist either. Paleolibertarians preach individualism but have a strong belief in regionalism &amp; localism also, wanting local and recognisable administration by private property owners. While paleolibertarians don’t mind international free trade, they are very much against any kind of “international law” and supernational administration like the United Nations or European Union.&nbsp;Overall, paleolibertarianism is libertarianism exclusively for the right. Influenced by everyone from Ludwig von Mises, Murray Rothbard, Hans Hermann-Hoppe &amp; Lew Rockwell, to Thomas Fleming and Pat Buchanan. If you believe in liberty, but don’t wish to see a world without morality and order then this might be the ideology for you.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</body></html>

Explaining the history and beliefs of paleolibertarianism from the perspective of an English anarcho-capitalist and paleolibertarian. 

What is Paleolibertarianism?

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As I’m sure everyone in the UK has seen at this point, there has been a spike in not only our energy bills but the cost of filling our cars up!  There are many reasons for the prices of energy to rise which I will touch on, since to understand where the future lies we need to understand the present.

The Present and Future of Energy in the United Kingdom

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Understanding the feudal and corporate worlds

The Marginal Return of the King

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<html><head></head><body>Over the past few years I have asked for books at Christmas to add to my growing collection of books I intend to one day read. They tend to be non-fiction and cover subjects I found to have gaps in after my education, for example philosophy, economics and history. Expanding my knowledge on my own terms has been the best decision I have made for broadening not only my understanding of the world but also has helped my vocabulary and knowledge for those pub quizzes we have all been going back to after lockdown!So with that in mind, I have put together a list of books you should all have on your Christmas list or to use those Amazon vouchers on and take the time to read over the Christmas and New Year!<h2>1. The English and Their History – Robert Tombs</h2>This book written by a Professor of History at Cambridge simply tells of the history of England from the dawn of historical writing, as early as the 7th century and St. Bede, all the way to the publication date in 2014. It is an excellently written narrative with many references keeping the story of the English both interesting and objective as possible. All parts of life are included from the monarchy to the serfs in mediaeval sections and our political leaders to the working class in more recent history. The book refutes some national myths as unfounded such as the “Lions being led by donkeys” line of World War 1 Britain as the book remains factual and only pushes truth. This is the perfect book for anyone interested in any period of English History.<h2>2. The 48 Laws of Power – Robert Greene&nbsp;</h2>This book, written by an ex-Hollywood writer, is a collection of behaviours of the Hollywood elite observed by Robert Greene. Realising these elites were acting in a similar manner to elites and leaders throughout history he compiled the laws together in this book that should be read by everyone with any sort of drive to be hyper successful in the world. Greene’s writing style in this book is very direct and is deliberately emotionless. Each chapter has an explanation of the Law, an example or 2 of the Law being played out or broken by a historical figure, from Caesar to Houdini, and some even have examples of how to detect and stop a person following the law. There is a good reason this book is referred to as “Hollywood back-stabber's bible” and one of the most requested books in American prisons, with some prisons even banning the book, it is best to read this book and recognise the nature of power.<h2>3. 12 Rules for Life – Jordan B Peterson&nbsp;</h2>Jordan Peterson’s classic, an interesting read with excellent advice from the clinical psychologist with decades of experience to distil his best self-help advice. Each chapter covers a rule first explaining why for example “Stand up straight with your shoulders back” is practical and helps you gain confidence in the real world. The chapters will then delve into mythology, both ancient and modern, sometimes even biblical, to explain how this advice has been implanted into Western culture since time immemorial. Peterson even goes into his own life and in the final chapter explains how even enjoying little things got him and his wife through the painful years of his daughter’s poor health. The perfect book for those wanting to improve their confidence and current life situation.<h2>4. 1984 – George Orwell&nbsp;</h2>The first fiction book of the list, this book is a classic that everyone knows the meaning of; that authoritarian governments inevitably lead to a total loss of all liberty. The book follows the life of Winston Smith who works at the inaptly named Ministry of Truth, the propaganda machine of the government, and how they manipulate media to push the party’s narrative that contradicts the past and what happens when you go against the party. The book also follows Winston Smith’s personal life and how the telescreens and spies (party run children’s scouts) make sure the people of Airstrip One do not dissent and are always monitored. This book is not only a great work of fiction but also is the quintessential British text of anti-authoritarianism.<h2>5. Basic Economics – Thomas Sowell&nbsp;</h2>The perfect text for learning about economics, Sowell’s straight to the point writing style and constant real-world examples affirm realities of economics such as supply and demand, interest and black markets. Basic Economics covers a vast range of topics including price ceilings/floors, centralised economics and government debts. There is no need to read the whole book in one go, it has been my go-to textbook for when the current talking points on economics jump from quantitative easing to rent controls to government bonds. This book is excellent for those of you who have little knowledge on economics and need somewhere to start.<h2>6. Prisoners of Geography – Tim Marshall&nbsp;</h2>This book written by British foreign affairs journalist Tim Marshall attempts to explain how geography has affected global politics and relations. Each chapter takes a country or continent on Earth and explains the country or countries’ politics of the past and present with geography of the place at the forefront of explanations. Such as Russia’s constant interest in the Crimea since it would allow Russia to have access to a warm water port all year round in Europe. The book delves into Africa, explaining how large jungles, mountain ranges and deserts meant Africans struggled to develop in the past and allowed European empires to take advantage of this fact leading to poorly placed borders today. A good book for those interested in global politics and history.<h2>7. The Two Treatises of Government – John Locke&nbsp;</h2>The Father of classical liberalism, Locke’s Two Treatises of Government is the foundational text for common law. The first treatise is a line-by-line refutation of Sir Robert Filmer's Patriarcha, Locke makes 2 main arguments. Firstly, Locke argues scripture supporting the divine right of kings put forward by Filmer are weak or don't support it at all and second that the divine right of kings can only lead to all those not being of royal blood to slavery. Secondly, Locke develops natural/freeborn rights of life, liberty and estate, called so because in Locke's conception of the state of nature we are not subordinate to anyone and are free to live and create wealth. The book goes through subjects on property, conquest and even revolution with logical arguments for natural rights using hypothetical narratives along with biblical scripture to support his concepts. A book for anyone wanting to explore the origins and ideas of English common law.<h2>8. Abolition of Britain – Peter Hitchens&nbsp;</h2>Abolition of Britain goes through several subjects of British life that have affected British life between the funerals of Winston Churchill and Princess Diane. Hitchens believes that Tony Blair committed a slow-motion coup d'état throughout the British government and institutions creating cultural reform not demanded by the British public. The book covers changes to education, such as history now focusing on common people of the past rather than grand events between political leaders and monarchs. Changes to attitudes to drugs, sex and religion, pushed by media and various political actors away from British Christian attitudes are documented well and constant comments from Hitchens about outcomes on these changes give a helpful insight into a classic conservative mind. A book for those wondering why Britain went from Victorian cultural standards to looser modern standards over the second half of the 20th century.<h2>9. Starship Troopers – Robert A. Heinlein&nbsp;</h2>A political manifesto disguised as a sci-fi war book, the book follows Filipino Juan Rico on his journey out of high school into the Terran Federation’s military. We follow Rico’s journey through basic training to the Mobile Infantry, power armoured units equipped with nuclear capable weaponry in their fight against the bugs, a thinly veiled parallel to communists. As mentioned this is a political manifesto disguised as fiction, there are sections where Rico studies in History and Moral Philosophy classes, where Heinlein places his critiques of Marxism, moral decline and even natural rights. The book is perfect for both sci-fi fans and those with an interest in modern philosophy, not recommended for Marxists.<h2>10. Why Nations Fail - Professor Daron Acemoglu &amp; James A. Robinson&nbsp;</h2>A book that destroys the myths that geography and genetics are destiny, a look throughout history as to why some nations prosper and others don’t. In 2 words the answer is “property rights” and the proper enforcement of property rights by political bodies. The book looks at the history of the world for reasons as to why there are economic differences between countries and finds that geography, culture and religion are all secondary reasons for this. The book also goes into the idea of extractive and inclusive economies, the former being economies that exclude most of society from being entrepreneurs and politicians, the latter including the majority of society. Of course, inclusive structures tend to lead to better outcomes in their research, I recommend this book for anyone interested in international politics and history.<h2>11. The Righteous Mind – Jonathan Haidt&nbsp;</h2>A precise look into the human mind and why it is naturally tribal, Haidt explains in this book how his research has found how people tend to form opinions and rationalise them. Haidt has found through his research that people do not tend to base their opinions and moral attitudes on facts but instead intuition, a mind elephant, with rationality being the tool to explain why we have these attitudes, the rider. Using this analogy Haidt goes into why throughout history and today people split into tribes and have such hate towards those we do not morally see eye to eye. Haidt also includes his theory for how we can change people’s minds on deep moral positions and how we need to be less tribal to succeed as a civilization. A great books for those wanting a deeper understanding of human social psychology.<h2>12. Socialism: The Failed Idea that Never Dies – Kristian Niemietz</h2>The final book on my list is a simple text that demolishes the idea of Socialism, an ideology Kristian Niemietz of the Institute of Economic Affairs has had many dealings with over the years. The book simply states that, from a Western perspective, socialists go through 3 stages, first the honeymoon phase directly after a country becomes socialist, Western socialists will use it as the beacon of socialist freedom. Second, when socialist countries start to fail, there will be excuses about why the country is failing outside of the socialist government. Finally, when the country collapses we get the “that wasn’t real socialism” line. Niemietz uses many examples from the 20th century to illustrate these points, such as East Germany and Cambodia, and even directly quotes socialists going through each stage and contradicting themselves. A great book for anyone wanting a simple understanding of why Western socialist rhetoric lives on and what to look out for with socialist talking points.</body></html>

Over the past few years I have asked for books at Christmas to add to my growing collection of books I intend to one day read. They tend to be non-fiction and cover subjects I found to have gaps in after my education, for example philosophy, economics and history. Expanding my knowledge on my own terms has been the best decision I have made for broadening not only my understanding of the world but also has helped my vocabulary and knowledge for those pub quizzes we have all been going back to after lockdown!

The 12 Books of Christmas (Recommended Reading List)

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There is a cross-cultural discussion regarding the regulatory regimes put into force by the State, as they embody a sort of panacea to solve an assortment of ills which plague society. These discussions have been happening for years, however most people have a shallow understanding of the effects of regulation. In theory, regulation is supposed to bring about more social security, protect the natural environment, and the physical safety of human beings (and sometimes animals). In this I will discuss the actual complications which arise within any regulatory regime which are usually ignored in favour of alternative but illogical explanations. First, we will discuss the basic philosophy which underlies all regulation.

The Problem with Regulation

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<html><head></head><body><h1>Is there a driver shortage in the UK?</h1>The Road Haulage Association (RHA) <a href="https://www.rha.uk.net/News/News-Blogs-and-Press-Releases/press-releases/detail/driver-shortage-rha-and-freight-industry-write-to-prime-minister-boris-johnson">wrote to Boris Johnson in June</a> warning about a 100k driver shortage. The 100k figure came from the Labour Force Survey, a copy of which can be found at the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/adhocs/13636hgvdriversbyageandnationality">Office of National Statistics</a>. Let's take a look.The ONS provides a link to download an excel spreadsheet with 2 tabs. One is data from the APS (Annual Population Survey) and the other is data from the LFS (Labour Force Survey). Having a look at the LFS we see the following table:<figure class="table"><table><thead><tr><th>Time period</th><th>Total</th><th>UK</th><th>EU</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Jan-Mar 2016</td><td>299</td><td>267</td><td>28</td></tr><tr><td>Apr-Jun 2016</td><td>316</td><td>280</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-Sep 2016</td><td>330</td><td>289</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>Oct-Dec 2016</td><td>334</td><td>291</td><td>43</td></tr><tr><td>Jan-Mar 2017</td><td>324</td><td>281</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>Apr-Jun 2017</td><td>303</td><td>258</td><td>43</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-Sep 2017</td><td>316</td><td>269</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>Oct-Dec 2017</td><td>322</td><td>282</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>Jan-Mar 2018</td><td>318</td><td>281</td><td>34</td></tr><tr><td>Apr-Jun 2018</td><td>322</td><td>277</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-Sep 2018</td><td>331</td><td>291</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>Oct-Dec 2018</td><td>325</td><td>283</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Jan-Mar 2019</td><td>302</td><td>262</td><td>35</td></tr><tr><td>Apr-Jun 2019</td><td>308</td><td>264</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-Sep 2019</td><td>305</td><td>274</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>Oct-Dec 2019</td><td>313</td><td>275</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>Jan-Mar 2020</td><td>304</td><td>265</td><td>37</td></tr><tr><td>Apr-Jun 2020</td><td>295</td><td>266</td><td>26</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-Sep 2020</td><td>267</td><td>242</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>Oct-Dec 2020</td><td>283</td><td>251</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>Jan-Mar 20212</td><td>253</td><td>226</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>Apr-Jun 2021</td><td>236</td><td>211</td><td>24</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>As you can see in the table, the total number of drivers peaked in Oct-Dec 2016 at 334k. The latest figure in Apr-Jun 2021 sits at 236k which is a difference of 98k. Sure enough that is close to the 100k figure claimed by the RHA.But there is a flaw in the data, a flaw that the ONS even highlights in the spreadsheet. Looking at the top of the LFS tab we see the following text:<blockquote>“Warning: This analysis is produced using Labour Force Survey (LFS) data as a result of a user request and increased media interest. ONS does not recommend the use of LFS for this type of analysis due to small sample sizes and insufficient quality. We recommend that the APS data is used instead as the larger sample sizes of the APS result in more robust estimates for this type of analysis.”</blockquote>The ONS is recommending we use the APS data, so let’s have a look:<figure class="table"><table><thead><tr><th>Time period</th><th>Total</th><th>UK</th><th>EU</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Apr 15 - Mar 16</td><td>290</td><td>258</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>Apr 16 - Mar 17</td><td>321</td><td>282</td><td>37</td></tr><tr><td>Apr 17 - Mar 18</td><td>311</td><td>271</td><td>37</td></tr><tr><td>Apr 18 - Mar 19</td><td>304</td><td>260</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Apr 19 - Mar 20</td><td>304</td><td>257</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>Apr 20 - Mar 21</td><td>275</td><td>244</td><td>28</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>Looking at the APS data, we can see that the total peaked in 'Apr 16 - Mar 17' at 321k, and the 2021 total sits at 275k, which creates a difference of 46k drivers.So from looking at the data, we can see the estimated shortage is approximately half of the number stated by the RHA, who chose to use a figure that the ONS stated should not be used for this type of analysis due to a small sample size. There does appear to be a shortage, but the number is approximately 46k, 50% less than the number being reported in the headlines.<h1>Surely Brexit is the cause of the shortage?</h1>It’s easy to see Brexit as the cause: EU workers leaving the UK and returning home or seeking work elsewhere. However, the data doesn’t support Brexit as being the cause. Have another look at the APS table above.The EU column tells an interesting story. The number of EU drivers increased every year until 2021. What event occurred through 2020-2021 that could have impacted that? Covid. It makes sense that, during a global pandemic, foreign workers would return home to be with family, or get stuck at closed borders trying to come into the UK.The UK column tells a more impactful story. UK drivers peaked in 'Apr16 - Mar17' at 282k and currently sits at 244k with a difference of 38k. This means that UK drivers account for 82% of the 46k shortage.To summarise: the number of EU drivers increased every year until Covid, meanwhile the number of UK drivers has been steadily dropping ever since 2018 and has dropped sharply as a result of covid. Brexit does not appear to be a major factor. Covid certainly is, but we are left asking why the number of UK drivers has been falling since 2018.<h1>What role does Covid play?</h1>As well as what has already been mentioned, covid has also had effects thanks to testing, as in drivers licence testing.Last year, 40,000 HGV tests were cancelled due to Covid. This means that the pool of newly qualified drivers has been shrinking more so than it already was.As well as cancelled tests, the DVLA sent their licencing staff home, again due to Covid. It turns out that drivers’ licences, and in this case HGV licences, can only be administered within the office itself, and so having the staff stuck at home meant that new licences were not being processed for months.On top of all this, the DVLA has also <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ongoing-industrial-action-at-dvla">been engaged in industrial action</a> which has resulted in hundreds of thousands of people being unable to renew licences or apply for provisionals.<h1>Any other factors?</h1>Another major factor that nobody is talking about is the impact of IR35 on the industry. The introduction of IR35 has put many drivers in the position of needing to go onto payroll rather than being contractors. Lorry drivers are a certain kind of person. They like to be left alone to get on with the job, and many of them want to be their own boss. They can work when they want, rest when they want and ultimately answer to nobody.IR35 threw a spanner in the works for contractors, leading many to leave the industry because if they couldn’t be their own boss then they might as well work for companies that offer good pay and benefits, as well as sociable working hours.<h1>Working conditions</h1>If we really want to know what drivers are thinking, we need to listen to the drivers themselves. Reverend Simon Sideways <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8k8k1Mia2I">has an excellent video</a> explaining what is causing the driver shortage.In the video, he states that there are currently 70,000 HGV licence holders in the UK who could be driving right now, but they choose not to due to working conditions and pay. He also mentions how agencies skim off the top so a driver might earn £12.50 an hour, but the agency is pocketing fees from client companies that the driver doesn’t even know about.There is a culture in the industry of cutting corners. Drivers are given a load plan saying the trailer is within weight, when in fact it may be several tonnes overweight. For every tonne a vehicle is overweight, a driver must pay £1k in fines. If drivers question their employers, they are fired because the agencies still view drivers as expendable and replaceable.Drivers are treated appallingly. When they arrive at a depot they may be told to wait for several hours and are not allowed use of bathrooms. On top of that, their keys are often taken off them so they can’t leave to do anything else in the meantime, so they are stuck in their cab without toilets for hours. If you’ve ever been in a layby and smelt urine, that’s probably why.<h1>What can be done to fix the shortage?</h1>The government has announced a scheme to bring EU drivers in on temporary visas to help in the short term. This may alleviate the pressure somewhat, but it does not solve the problem at large.Quite simply, the solution is to pay drivers more and improve conditions in the industry. Waitrose <a href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/waitrose-offering-lorry-drivers-same-salary-as-some-its-head-office-executives-131503033.html">is reportedly offering £45,000</a> for drivers.<figure class="image"><img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/VRaoutkxRfXm6fArT_yhoQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MDtjZj13ZWJw/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-08/c332af50-08be-11ec-bb75-8c53bb1dc3c1"><figcaption><a href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/waitrose-offering-lorry-drivers-same-salary-as-some-its-head-office-executives-131503033.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Waitrose lorry driving on the M25</a></figcaption></figure><blockquote>"The bottom line is that companies are doing whatever they can to obtain and keep hold of drivers.""HGV drivers are a scarce resource in the UK and with a government devoid of workable ideas on how to ease the problem, the shortage is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.”Waitrose said that 900 drivers already employed by the supermarket will benefit from the up to £5,000 pay increase.Meanwhile, new drivers will get a £1,000 joining bonus as it tackles the staff shortages.In a statement, Mark Robinson, Director of Supply Chain for the John Lewis Partnership, said: “There’s never been a better time to get behind the wheel for Waitrose and John Lewis."</blockquote>It is a game of supply and demand. The driver supply is shrinking, and demand is growing. If you pay drivers more, they will come. With the reported figure of 70k licence holders who are not currently driving, the industry would be able to end the shortage tomorrow if they increased wages and improved conditions to bring those drivers back.<h1>Cheap labour</h1>Who benefits from continuing to push the “DRIVER CRISIS”? The companies that were benefiting from taking advantage of cheap foreign labour. The driver shortage started picking up steam back in 2018, and has been getting worse, quietly in the background, ever since. The government had many opportunities to put in provisions to ensure it never got this bad, and yet they sat on their hands and looked the other way.Now we have industry CEO’s and political parties demanding that temporary EU visas be introduced to plug the gap. But it is those very CEO’s that would benefit from cheap foreign labour instead of having to pay a decent wage and improve working conditions for home grown drivers.This isn’t even about dislike of foreign workers. Polish and Romanian drivers got sick of being taken advantage of by agencies as much as UK drivers did. They went home to their countries for better pay, while UK drivers moved to different industries.Improve working conditions and pay drivers better and the shortage will be fixed. Stop allowing these exploitative businesses to get away with treating both ours and foreign drivers like sacks of meat.</body></html>

The Road Haulage Association (RHA) wrote to Boris Johnson in June warning about a 100k driver shortage. The 100k figure came from the Labour Force Survey, a copy of which can be found at the Office of National Statistics. Let's take a look.

A Deep Dive on the HGV Driver Shortage

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<html><head></head><body><h1>Introduction</h1>Recently I have been exploring the world of cryptocurrency and wondering about the implications that such a technology might have for the future.Here I will be sharing my thoughts on this as well as my understanding. We will start at the beginning with how cryptocurrency works, as well as why we might use it as a currency. We will explore the most famous of these, Bitcoin, and a more versatile and generalised version, Ethereum. We will then discuss the possible implications and consider the recent trend of various governments now hinting at the possibility of national cryptocurrency, and why this is a terrifying concept despite the near universal use of national currencies throughout history.The intended scope of this article is that it should be understandable for someone with no formal background in economics or computing, bearing in mind that I have none myself in the former and only some in the latter. &nbsp;<h1>What is Currency?</h1>In order to understand what a cryptocurrency is, we must first discuss currency in general. As far as I can see, currency is an invention that bypasses the issues with conversion rates inherent in barter systems.&nbsp;An example may illustrate this: If I own a successful farm and wish to purchase a new Ferrari, how many apples can I give the car dealer? How many sheep? How many pints of milk? How many apples are there to the pint of milk in this case? How many sheep to the Ferrari? This is to say nothing of the car dealer’s personal valuation of a crate of apples decreasing as each one is piled up in front of his dealership. Even if we were bartering with a commodity that didn’t rot away within a week, the issue remains. How many tractors is that Ferrari that I want worth? If it is 1.5 tractors then how do I supply half a tractor? Bearing in mind of course that cutting my second tractor in half would deprive me of two tractors and not provide him with one and a half tractors worth of value.What if there is nothing on my farm that the car dealer actually wants right now? For every transaction, the seller has to look at everything the buyer can provide and decide what combination of these they are willing to accept, if any, given that all of these resources have multiple alternative uses. This does not seem like an efficient solution.There is a better way. What we need is some sort of commodity that everyone values that we can use as an intermediate step in a transaction between farming produce and a Ferrari.This should have the following properties to circumvent the conversion issues outlined:<ol><li>Durability - Hard to destroy each instance of it</li><li>Portability - Easy to transport</li><li>Scarcity - Rare enough that even a small amount is appreciably valuable&nbsp;</li><li>Divisibility - Easily broken down without losing value</li><li>Uniformity - Easily identifiable to everybody involved</li></ol>Note that our exchange commodity doesn’t have to fulfil all of these to be useful. In reality only acceptability is what is important, i.e. everyone involved agrees that this is what is being used for this transaction, these points just help in how likely it is to be accepted as such.Historically, coins or bars made from precious metals have fulfilled this role, although other things like livestock have as well in some times and places. Returning to our previous analogue, all I have to do is give enough of my apples to a cider brewer in return for enough gold coins to buy my Ferrari, and then the car dealer can go and use these same coins to buy whatever he would like from someone who can provide it. Now, instead of a complex web of conversion factors, it is simply “how many gold coins is this worth to me?”. I have my Ferrari, the brewer has his apples, the car dealer can invest the money into more Ferraris, garage space, staff, etc to grow his business, everyone wins!A commodity used in such a way is what we call money, and a specific instance of this is called a currency. For example, when we ask “how much money is this worth?”, we are asking how much of this commodity is something worth, measured in units of some currency. The same physical amount of e.g. silver (money) is valued at different amounts of pounds, dollars, euros, etc (currency).&nbsp;<h1>What is Cryptocurrency?</h1>Cryptocurrency is an attempt to do this but electronically. There is no physical commodity here, transactions and storage of value are purely electronic, bypassing the one disadvantage of precious metals: They do not have the property of portability. Gold bars are hard to transport, whereas potentially millions or billions of dollars in e.g. bitcoin can be sent nigh instantly anywhere in the world.How this works is in fact relatively simple. Everyone who holds cryptocurrency does so in a wallet. This stores a public and a private key, or “address”. The public key can be freely shared and allows others to send you their currency, and the private key should be kept secret and allows you to send to others. The combination of your private key, someone else’s public key and a timestamp is what uniquely defines a transaction.As well as each wallet, there is what is known as the ledger. The technology behind this is called a blockchain, simply a growing list of records (or “blocks”) that are linked together via cryptographic hashes that point to the previous block (hence “crypto”-currency). These blocks also contain the timestamp and data surrounding the transaction that each block is used to represent.In brief, to “hash” some data together is to combine pieces of data irreversibly to create an identifier, known as “a hash”. This process should always create the same hash given the same inputs and it should be easy to go from the inputs to the hash, but hard or impossible to go backwards from the hash to the inputs.An important thing to note is that the ledger is not typically stored centrally, it is usually hosted with copies of it in full stored on each node in a network. A node is simply someone’s computer connected to this cryptocurrency’s network using a client program.When a transaction is made, the details of each transaction are submitted to the nodes on the network for validation of all the keys involved, via a method that depends on which cryptocurrency we are discussing. If this passes, each copy of the ledger on each node is updated with a new block showing this transaction has occurred. This cannot be updated retroactively without all further blocks becoming invalid, there is now a permanent public record that some amount of value was sent from one wallet to another.Note that there is no reason for an individual’s personal information to be linked to the wallet address, no details about which person sent to which other person need be stored, just the combination of the keys involved.So, from the ledger the amount of coins each wallet has in it can be easily calculated. Value can be transferred around and, in theory, used to purchase goods and services. In our above example there is no reason I have to use gold bars, cows or cryptocurrency tokens to buy my Ferrari, so long as the car dealer accepts it. The likelihood that they do is based on whether cryptocurrencies satisfy our five points:<ol><li>Durability - Since it is electronically stored and usually decentralised, impossible to destroy without taking out every physical node.</li><li>Portability - As previously mentioned, any amount can be sent anywhere in the world instantly.</li><li>Scarcity - Usually a rigid amount in existence, or a theoretical limit, but this depends on the currency.</li><li>Divisibility - The only limit to how many divisions are possible is down to data types used for storage</li><li>Uniformity - Identified by cryptographic hashes, cannot be reverse engineered</li></ol>It appears that they do, in principle.&nbsp;<h1>What is Bitcoin?</h1>This was the first and is currently the most famous cryptocurrency, with a white paper entitled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System” being released on 31 October 2008 [1], and version 0.1.0 of the software on 9 January the following year.It works similarly to how we have explored previously, with the addition of the concept of mining. This involves the miner having to create blocks out of new transactions on the network that other nodes can verify. They have to search for a number known as a nonce, which when hashed with the block content will be accepted by the network, i.e. it is smaller than some difficulty target. There is no way to do this other than having your computer guess a nonce and try hashing it with the block over and over again, so this either consumes a lot of time or a lot of processing power. For every block this is done for, the miner receives a reward of more bitcoin tokens.This is known as a “Proof-of-Work” system.There are two clever facts about bitcoin mining:<ol><li>Every 2,016 blocks this difficulty target is adjusted based on how fast the network has been accepting them, with a bias towards making it harder if the network has been faster than 10 minutes per block, or easier if it has been slower.</li><li>Every 210,000 blocks the reward per block halves, starting at 50 BTC in 2009 [2] (worth just over £1,8M at the time of writing)</li></ol>This has the effect that it becomes harder and harder to mine new coins over time, especially as the amount being mined has only increased in recent years, adding the concept of scarcity to the bitcoin supply as discussed previously.&nbsp;<h1>What is Ethereum?</h1>The Ethereum coin, ETH, is similar to bitcoin in how it works (for now), but it is much more than that. Ethereum is in actual fact a programmable blockchain. If an individual has the programming skill to write what is known as a “smart contract”, then they may define their own application built on blockchain technology. This could be decentralised finance, a social media platform with posts that cannot be deleted, a decentralised yet permanent library of books that can therefore never be censored, even your own cryptocurrency for use in any of these, or anything else you can program. [3]The implications of this for the individual are huge of course, and a great many more cryptocurrencies are built using Ethereum.One final thing to mention regarding Ethereum is their plans to move away from their current block verification model for ETH, which is at the time of writing essentially the same as bitcoin’s, i.e. it is proof-of-work. They wish to move to another method, which is known as “Proof-of-Stake”.&nbsp;To become a validator (ETH’s planned version of a miner), an ETH holder must “stake” an amount of their coins in the Ethereum software. When a new transaction becomes available to validate, a validator who has staked their coin is chosen at random. If they successfully validate on whatever hardware they have they are rewarded, and if they fail they may even lose a portion of their stake.The advantages of this are, according to the Ethereum developer documentation [4], as follows<ol><li>Better energy efficiency – you don't need to use lots of energy mining blocks</li><li>Lower barriers to entry, reduced hardware requirements – you don't need elite hardware to stand a chance of creating new blocks</li><li>Stronger immunity to centralization – proof-of-stake should lead to more nodes in the network</li><li>Stronger support for shard chains – a key upgrade in scaling the Ethereum network</li></ol>The idea is you don’t need a more powerful computer, just more ETH in your wallet to become a serious ETH miner.&nbsp;<h1>Implications for Governments</h1>Having gone over the theory of how cryptocurrency technology works, it is important to discuss how a government may react to it. Their first instinct might be to ban it outright, citing concerns over its use in illegal activities or the energy, and therefore supposed environmental damage, required to obtain it.&nbsp;Of course it also threatens the control of a nation’s central bank over the regular, i.e. fiat, currency system which, since the USA’s abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, has become the standard national banking system globally.A fiat system, i.e. a monetary system not based around any commodity like gold/silver/cattle/etc, does not have a fixed property of scarcity, allowing the ones with the responsibility over managing it, central banks, to print more money and sell it to a government. A government might benefit from this for a multitude of reasons, including money for their pet projects and money for wars, all without the difficulty associated with taking from their citizens’ pay cheques. Any debt they may have accrued from pursuing their ends suddenly becomes worth less with inflation, 100 billion today is not worth as much as 100 billion yesterday, and is therefore easier to pay off. Of course, the citizens of your country may not be too happy that their money is now less valuable.Any financial system immune from this, with the added ability to instantly move vast sums offshore immediately, would certainly rattle any modern government due to this loss of centralisation, and if it doesn’t it probably should.My response to calls to ban cryptocurrency is along the lines of “good luck”. As has been stated before, unless you cut the power, block every single peer-to-peer communication, then erase the memory of all private and public keys from the minds of your citizens, any government has little chance of totally stopping it.We shouldn’t, however, dismiss the lengths powerful people will go to protect what they have. I could perhaps imagine a scenario where a state may mandate that all citizens register their cryptocurrency wallet addresses with them in a central database, or even provide some sort of government ID before downloading the software. This would be similar to measures being considered in Australia which would mandate that Government ID be provided by a prospective user before accessing social media [5]. While this would not be a knockout punch to the usage of cryptocurrency within a given nation or state, by raising the barrier of entry it becomes akin to a slow strangulation. Additionally, given that people already using cryptocurrencies for illegal activity aren’t exactly going to stop just because they’re breaking one more law, it seems that it would be unlikely to achieve the stated aim of such legislation.A different direction, and one I believe to be far more insidious, would be the introduction of a national cryptocurrency. If a state can’t beat them, why not join them? How would a citizen access this and gain some of the nation’s coins? By providing some proof that they are a citizen of course! Providing some government ID that is then tied to your wallet address would be ideal.Proposed central banking digital currencies (CBDC for short) like Britcoin [6] are not quite the same, since they are being pitched as just an electronic version of the national currency and not necessarily decentralised or blockchain-based. However, my advice would be to keep an eye out and be aware of state forays into online money.Returning to the crypto option, imagine a nation where there is a ledger distributed among people that the state trusts to verify transactions. This ledger would be tied to your name and address. Even if it is not publicly available, the forces that control the nation can still see every transaction you have ever made, how much you sent and to whom, and this cannot be removed, ever, not even by them.Is this a future we want to live in?&nbsp;<h1>References</h1>[1] <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140320135003/https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf">https://web.archive.org/web/20140320135003/https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf</a>[2] <a href="https://www.bitcoinmining.com/what-is-the-bitcoin-block-reward/">https://www.bitcoinmining.com/what-is-the-bitcoin-block-reward/</a>[3] <a href="https://ethereum.org/en/what-is-ethereum/">https://ethereum.org/en/what-is-ethereum/</a>[4] <a href="https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/consensus-mechanisms/pos/">https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/consensus-mechanisms/pos/</a>[5] <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-a-long-bow-social-media-id-push-dubbed-a-privacy-risk-20210402-p57g7d.html">https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-a-long-bow-social-media-id-push-dubbed-a-privacy-risk-20210402-p57g7d.html</a>[6] <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56799726">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56799726</a> &nbsp;</body></html>

Recently I have been exploring the world of cryptocurrency and wondering about the implications that such a technology might have for the future.

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